The short message from Twitter’s IPO? #SlowingGrowth + MORE Oct 5th

As an investment management firm, we are constantly asked for our market outlooks. What will happen when the Fed starts tapering its stimulus program? Are BRIC nations the new PIIGS? What’s going to happen with the housing market? Frankly, our outlook is likely to disappoint. Why? Because we don’t have one. Science tells us that to attempt an outlook for a complex system, such as a stock market, is ill-advised. So let’s let science tell us why we shouldn’t bother with outlooks.
Laplace’s Demon
Our explanation begins with Pierre-Simon LaPlace, a 19th century French mathematician and astronomer. LaPlace lived shortly after Sir Isaac Newton and, like many people in this time, was greatly influenced by Newton’s theory of the Clockwork Universe. In this universe, the clear relationships between cause and effect led to the notion that we could, with great accuracy, predict the behaviour of the solar system.  LaPlace took this idea to the extreme and believed if you had enough inputs, you could predict the future indefinitely…

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US housing rebound likely to handle spike in rates
LOS ANGELES (AP) — When mortgage rates began climbing in May from rock-bottom lows, Kevin Williams worried he might miss out on an opportunity.
So he listed his home in Orange County, Calif., and planned to buy a bigger house in San Diego after it sold. The process took all summer. Last week, he and his wife locked in a mortgage.
The extra time added at least $1,000 more a year than if they had secured a loan in May. Still, Williams believes they made a prudent decision.
Williams’ justification — buy now or risk paying more later — is why many brokers and analysts remain confident that the housing recovery can handle higher mortgage rates. While the jump in rates should test the strength of the recovery, analysts foresee stable sales increases over the next year for a number of reasons.
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Twitter dishes tantalizing tidbits in IPO treatise
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Twitter, a privately held company built on blurbs, has finally laid itself bare in documents that read more like a treatise than a tweet…

Regulatory filing shows company has never made a profit

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Smartphone maker has already reached preliminary agreement with Fairfax Financial to go private for $4.7-billion