Canadian home sales forecast downgraded—but the market may be turning a corner + MORE Jul 17th

The Canadian real estate market, as we all know, has been a rollercoaster. We’ve seen the highs, the wild bidding wars, and then the cooling period as interest rates climbed. But here we are, in July 2025. I’m here to tell you that for the savvy buyer, today might just be that sweet spot you’ve been waiting for.

You’ve heard the chatter: “overvalued,” “affordability crisis,” “wait for prices to drop.” And sure, even cutting through the noise, if you’re expecting a 2021-style market frenzy, you’ll be disappointed.

But short of that, here are reasons why now presents a unique window of opportunity.

Interest rates are stabilizing (and perhaps declining)

We’ve seen the Bank of Canada make big moves over the years. But while we’re not back to rock-bottom rates, the aggressive hikes are behind us. The market is adjusting to a new reality.

What does that mean for you?

First, there’s less uncertainty around your mortgage payments…

The Canada Revenue Agency has released findings from its industry consultation on a proposed income verification tool, revealing strong support for a secure, digital system that could reduce mortgage fraud and simplify the approval process.

Without exception, when you purchase a home in Canada with a down payment of less than 20%, you have to pay a CMHC insurance premium (also known as mortgage default insurance or mortgage loan insurance). It’s a federally mandated requirement, administered by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, and it serves the dual purpose of protecting lending institutions while enabling purchasers to get into the housing market sooner, with a down payment as low as 5%.

CMHC insurance premiums range from 0.6% to 4.5% of the total mortgage amount (the smaller the down payment, the higher the rate), and they are typically tacked onto the mortgage. To help take the bite out of that expense, a new sustainability initiative called CMHC Eco Plus offers a 25% partial premium refund to buyers of newly built energy-efficient homes. CMHC Eco Plus launched on July 8, 2025. Let’s look at the details and how home buyers can benefit.

Which homes qualify for CMHC Eco Plus?

To qualify for CMHC Eco Plus, a new house or condo “must meet the building standards of eligible certifications or the energy efficiency target based off the EnerGuide Rating System (ERS)…

For the second time this year, the Canadian Real Estate Association has downgraded its forecast for home sales in 2025, even as it says a turnaround could be looming following increased activity in June.

The association reported that the number of homes changing hands across the country in June rose 3.5% compared with a year ago. Canadian home sales last month also increased 2.8% compared with May on a seasonally adjusted basis.

In its outlook released Tuesday, CREA said it now expects a total of 469,503 residential properties to be sold this year, a 3% decline from 2024. In April, the association forecast the number of home sales for 2025 to remain essentially unchanged from last year, which itself marked a steep cut from its January forecast of an 8.6% year-over-year increase.

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Canada’s pace of new home construction edged up in June, rising 0.4% from May to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 283,734 units, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.