Insights From A Top Canadian Economist: Part 2 + MORE Nov 4th

Two weeks ago, I attended the National Mortgage Brokers Conference and had the pleasure of seeing one of the most trusted economists in the country speak: Benjamin Tal. Ben is the Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC. I’ve been following him for over 20 years, as have many Canadians, and for good reason; not only is he exceptionally skilled at simplifying complex concepts; he’s also exceptionally skilled at getting it right.

His forecasts have always proven uncannily accurate, which is why he’s always been my go-to resource for what the Canadian economy can expect next. As always, his insights at the conference were extremely poignant. He painted a crystal clear picture of how we got here, what’s currently happening, and what’s to come.

Now, I’d like to share that picture with you. 

The Inflation Crisis

It’s no secret to anyone that’s bought anything recently: inflation has gotten out of hand. The Bank of Canada has swiftly responded with aggressive rate hikes aimed at cooling the economy and bringing inflation down…

Canadian economist Benjamin Tal’s presentation at the National Mortgage Brokers Conference was eye-opening. In it, he posited a holistic view of what’s happening with the Canadian economy and what we can expect to happen next. He’s rarely been wrong in the 20 years I’ve been following him – so I thought it was incredibly important to share his insights with you. 

Part 1 of this series dives into the forces he believes are impacting inflation. These include international economies as well as lasting effects from the pandemic. There’s one factor however that I believe is most responsible for our current economic climate and is worthy of a larger conversation: the labour market.

Where Are All The Workers?

There are currently 1 million vacant jobs in Canada. Considering our relatively smaller population of 38 million, this is a huge number. So what’s stopping these positions from getting filled? To start, a shocking amount of people are battling long COVID…

As the country re-opens after COVID-related restrictions, Canadians are faced with a worrying financial picture. Many have moved, others are looking to travel, and the cost of living is ballooning with unusual rates of inflation. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate hikes designed to curb these forces are adding pressure to those with variable-rate loans and mortgages. Unsurprisingly, many Canadians are using their credit cards to charge their expenses.

How much debt does the average Canadian carry? 

The average credit card debt Canadians had in September 2022 was $2,121, according to Equifax. And another report the Canadian credit bureau, Canadian consumer debt has risen to $2.32 trillion, with an average debt load of approximately $21,000—excluding mortgages. These numbers represent an increase of 8.2% over last year, and 6.4% between the first and second quarters of 2022. And Canadians are using credit cards more, as there was a 6.4% increase in credit balances from the first quarter to the second…

How can mortgage brokers excel at their job in today’s competitive marketplace? Some of the country’s top experts provide some insight and know-how.